Let’s take a look at TVC:DXY , something that determines half of the world economy.
- in the long term (in the sense of crypto – 1y-2y):
– DXY will break down hard.
– crypto will be incredibly pumped by new capital escaping from collapsing traditional markets
- in ultra-long (in the sense of crypto – 3y-5y):
– we have the end of the dollar as the dominant currency
– we will see the new face of the entire crypto market
Legend to read the chart:
– description: DXY monthly, Zoom Out to TradingView’s top of stock.
– red vertical lines: lowest low on the cycle
– vertical green bars: highest high per cycle
– peak / bottom occurs on average every 7-8 years (blue balloons at the end with the number of bars. 1 bar = 1 month)
– purple strokes – great
– yellow horizontal lines: Fibonacci measured from the last peak (March 2020, beginning of the pandemic) to the support from which the DXY breakout took place (August 2014). Fibo values shifted to the right for the readability of the chart.
And now – we have 3 points of intersection on DXY in the future, that is:
– purple channel
– yellow retracement of fibo 1.618 (the thickest yellow bottom line)
– red distance in time – prediction for a next bottom.
What facts support this prediction:
– 16-year dollar cycles – currently it looks like we have a half cycle and a systematic decline. We’ll get to the bottom in 3-5 years
– Biden administration (tax supporter, mass stimulation, possibly permanent guaranteed income)
– the rise of China’s power, increasing economic domination, cryptoyuan is on the doorstep, making world production dependent on one another, cutting itself off from global systems, partnership with Russia, dominance in Asia
– the rise of Asia as a whole, the largest economic pacts in history
If this is really our target for the next 3-5 years, the index decline is about 29%.
What does it mean:
– collapse of the USA as a world empire
– collapse of the dollar and the petrodollar system
– Bitcoin to the moon, unless they regulate it and ban trading for little ones, and leave it to institutions
– there will be not only ALT season, but also whole CRYPTO season. Projects with good foundations will systematically raise money (be it from stimulus, or from institutions and corporations), so anything from the top 150 is worth keeping on super long term HODL.
Key issues for the coming years:
– what will happen to the dollar, what system will be put in place instead?
– will China dominate this new system? If so, what will be the answer from the US?
– or will there be a clear systemic division between West vs East with an eastern center of gravity in China?
– what role will crypto play? Will they let him play freely as he has done so far?
– What if Biden dies during his term of office? What will Kamala Harris do then?
Feel free to discuss this idea.