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Stocks To Trade In April

Here are the cycles-based trade recommendations for the DJIA stocks in this month. In March, the long trades returned an average of  4.0% versus a rise of  6.9% in the DJIA in comparison to a return of -10.4% for the short sales. The long trades were favored based upon the expectation of a strong March.

For the month of April, the cycle/relative strength concept is applied. First, the Dow Jones 30 stocks are ranked from the best performer to the worst by calculating the expected return in that month. The top 15 were screened as follows. The top 15 best traditional performers in the month were then screened for relative strength by a unique measure that sorts by several relevant time periods. Those that pass both screens are buys for the month. The stocks that are both weak monthly performers and weak relative performers are short sales for the month.

The seasonal screen for the month is presented below. The number of years of data is in the last column. The % Times Return column shows the percent of months in which the stock rose. The Return column shows the average percentage gain in the month. The Expected Return column is the product of columns two and three. We can see that VISA
V
has been trading for 13 years and has risen in 76.9% in all the months of April. The average return has been 5.1% and the expected return is 3.9%.

Average Performance of the DJIA Stocks in the Month of April

Of the top 15, these stocks show strong relative strength and are considered buys for the month:

Honeywell

Caterpillar
CAT

American Expres
AXP
s

Chevro
CVX
n

Inte
INTC
l

Cisco

MMM

Disney
DIS

Home Depot
HD

Regarding the weakest 15, these stocks show declining relative strength and are suitable short sales:

Nike
NKE

Merc
MRK
k

Appl
AAPL
e

Verizo
VZ
n

Travelers

Walmart
WMT

Procter and Gambl
PG
e

Amge
AMGN
n

The uptrend remains intact, so the longs are favored as was the case in March.

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