The Ringer’s NBA Playoff and Lottery Odds Machine
Welcome to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine for the 2020-21 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine includes four main features: postseason odds (including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and winning the title), lottery odds (for the top pick and a top-five pick), odds for reaching the play-in tournament, and the most likely final standings for each conference. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so be sure to check back throughout the coming months as the league’s best teams battle for a title.
The below chart shows the average win total for every team, as well as each team’s likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs and winning the 2020-21 title. We’re simulating the rest of the season—and postseason—every day, so check back daily for the latest projections.
Playoff Odds
| Team | Average Wins | Playoffs | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Average Wins | Playoffs | Title |
| Jazz | 53 | 100% | 31% |
| Suns | 50 | 100% | 12% |
| Clippers | 47 | 100% | 12% |
| Bucks | 46 | 100% | 12% |
| 76ers | 48 | 100% | 11% |
| Nets | 47 | 100% | 8% |
| Nuggets | 46 | 100% | 6% |
| Lakers | 43 | 98% | 3% |
| Hawks | 38 | 94% | 2% |
| Mavericks | 41 | 91% | 1% |
| Celtics | 37 | 90% | 1% |
| Knicks | 35 | 69% | 1% |
| Trail Blazers | 40 | 85% | <1% |
| Hornets | 36 | 78% | <1% |
| Heat | 36 | 78% | <1% |
| Grizzlies | 38 | 75% | <1% |
| Pacers | 34 | 53% | <1% |
| Bulls | 32 | 26% | <1% |
| Warriors | 35 | 24% | <1% |
| Spurs | 33 | 16% | <1% |
| Raptors | 31 | 12% | <1% |
| Pelicans | 32 | 7% | <1% |
| Kings | 31 | 4% | <1% |
| Wizards | 27 | 1% | <1% |
| Thunder | 27 | <1% | <1% |
| Cavaliers | 26 | <1% | <1% |
| Pistons | 24 | <1% | <1% |
| Magic | 24 | <1% | <1% |
| Rockets | 21 | <1% | <1% |
| Timberwolves | 20 | <1% | <1% |
Getty Images/Ringer illustration
The 2021 NBA draft is loaded at the top, with Cade Cunningham and a handful of others projecting as franchise cornerstones. Accounting for the simulated final standings, lottery odds, and pick trades, what are your favorite team’s chances of landing no. 1, or a top-five selection? (Only teams with at least a 1 percent chance of getting a top-five pick are included here.)
Lottery Odds
| Team | No. 1 | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No. 1 | Top 5 |
| Rockets | 14% | 52% |
| Timberwolves | 14% | 40% |
| Pistons | 12% | 58% |
| Magic | 12% | 58% |
| Cavaliers | 10% | 45% |
| Wizards | 9% | 39% |
| Thunder | 8% | 67% |
| Raptors | 4% | 20% |
| Kings | 4% | 17% |
| Pelicans | 3% | 14% |
| Bulls | 3% | 13% |
| Spurs | 2% | 8% |
| Warriors | 1% | 54% |
| Pacers | 1% | 5% |
| Knicks | 1% | 3% |
| Hornets | <1% | 2% |
| Heat | <1% | 2% |
| Grizzlies | <1% | 1% |
| Celtics | <1% | 1% |
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22428746/kram_odds_2_inlines_lebron_getty_ringer.jpeg "The Ringer’s NBA Playoff and Lottery Odds Machine 2")
Getty Images/Ringer illustration
Before this postseason starts in full, each conference will host three play-in games. The top six teams in each conference automatically will advance to the playoff bracket—but nos. 7, 8, 9, and 10 will all participate in the play-in round. Which teams are most likely to compete in this new showcase? (Only teams with at least a 1 percent chance are included here.)
Eastern Conference Play-In Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Team | Odds |
| Pacers | 75% |
| Knicks | 65% |
| Bulls | 64% |
| Heat | 54% |
| Hornets | 49% |
| Raptors | 38% |
| Celtics | 30% |
| Hawks | 20% |
| Wizards | 4% |
| Cavaliers | 2% |
Western Conference Play-In Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Team | Odds |
| Warriors | 83% |
| Grizzlies | 82% |
| Spurs | 66% |
| Trail Blazers | 57% |
| Mavericks | 46% |
| Pelicans | 32% |
| Kings | 19% |
| Lakers | 12% |
| Nuggets | 1% |
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22428751/kram_odds_2_inlines_kawhi_getty_ringer.jpeg "The Ringer’s NBA Playoff and Lottery Odds Machine 3")
Getty Images/Ringer illustration
Interested in the juiciest potential matchups in the first round, or your favorite team’s path to the Finals? These charts show the most likely final standings in each conference, based on today’s simulations. Start planning your brackets!
Eastern Conference Most Likely Seedings
| Seed | Team |
|---|---|
| Seed | Team |
| 1 | 76ers |
| 2 | Nets |
| 3 | Bucks |
| 4 | Hawks |
| 5 | Celtics |
| 6 | Hornets |
| 7 | Heat |
| 8 | Knicks |
| 9 | Pacers |
| 10 | Bulls |
Western Conference Most Likely Seedings
| Seed | Team |
|---|---|
| Seed | Team |
| 1 | Jazz |
| 2 | Suns |
| 3 | Clippers |
| 4 | Nuggets |
| 5 | Lakers |
| 6 | Mavericks |
| 7 | Trail Blazers |
| 8 | Grizzlies |
| 9 | Warriors |
| 10 | Spurs |
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