UK-News

Local election results timings – your hour-by-hour guide to all the key battles

Millions of Brits are voting on May 6 for 143 councils, 39 police commissioners, 13 mayors, two national parliaments, the London Assembly and the Hartlepool by-election.

The ‘Super Thursday’ elections are the first ballot box test of Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer since the pandemic – with all eyes on the by-election which polls are tipping the Tories to take.

This week’s elections will also decide whether Labour have to rule in coalition in Wales, and whether Nicola Sturgeon gets the SNP majority she craves – allowing her a fresh push for Scottish independence.

Most important perhaps are the thousands of power struggles at local council level that will never make national headline news.

Results will start appearing in the early hours of Friday, but counting is slower than usual due to Covid restrictions and the number of different elections – up to four or five in some areas.

It’s thought the full picture may not be known until late in the weekend or Monday.

So with this labyrinth of results, how on earth are you supposed to keep up and interpret it all?

Here’s our hour-by-hour guide breaking things down into manageable chunks. With thanks to PA Media, the Local Government Information Unit and others for parts of the information. Timings are only approximate estimates and could vary wildly.

All the different local election races explained

Keir Starmer on the campaign trail in Pontefract

143 ENGLISH COUNCILS: More than 5,000 seats are up for grabs on 21 county, 28 unitary, 35 metropolitan and 59 district councils in England. Some are electing the whole council, some half their councillors and some only a third. Conservatives are defending slightly more seats while Labour are defending slightly more councils in control. But the Tories made big gains in 2017, the last time many of these same seats were up for grabs – so Labour should be regaining this time. Boris Johnson has told Tory activists to brace for a “tough night”. Key battles will be over 40 councils in “no overall control”. More than half the seats up for grabs (2,662) were meant to be elected in 2020 but delayed due to Covid. Likewise, seats include 352 by-elections that were delayed by the pandemic. WHERE? Almost everywhere in England.

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT: All 129 seats are being chosen and Nicola Sturgeon will be hoping to win an overall majority – which she’s just short of now. Polls leave little doubt the SNP will be the largest party but Opinium say an overall majority is too close to call. If the nationalists up their seat tally from 61 to 65, they will push for a new independence referendum – seven years after last losing their fight. However, they’re also facing a fight with Alex Salmond’s Alba party which wants a “super-majority” for independence. Labour, with new leader Anas Sarwar, is trailing in third place on 23 seats but isn’t expecting to leapfrog the Tories after hitting rock bottom last year – instead the party wants a platform to rebuild. WHERE? Everywhere in Scotland.

WELSH PARLIAMENT: All 60 seats are up for grabs and polls suggest Labour – while the biggest party – has an uphill struggle to win an overall majority. First Minister Mark Drakeford has ruled out an independence referendum as the price of any pact, but could need a deal with Plaid Cymru or the Lib Dems if he’s to form a minority government. This is one of UKIP’s last outposts, where ex-Tory Neil Hamilton clings on for Nigel Farage’s old party even after he abandoned it. WHERE? Everywhere in Wales.

13 ENGLISH MAYORS: London’s mayoral election is the biggest but Labour’s Sadiq Khan is on course for an easy victory. The biggest battles are over Tory-held Tees Valley and West Midlands. Labour wants a Red Wall upset to seize West Midlands but hopes appear slim in Tees Valley. Voters are also electing two other “metro mayors” in Labour-held Greater Manchester and Liverpool City Region. There are three “combined authority” mayoral elections – Tory-held West of England and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough, along with new mayoralty West Yorkshire., where Labour MP an ex-soap star Tracy Brabin wants a win. And finally five single-authority mayors – all currently held by Labour – are up for election in Bristol, Liverpool, Salford, Doncaster and North Tyneside. WHERE? Everywhere in the regions of Greater London, Greater Manchester, West Midlands, Tees Valley, Liverpool City Region, West Yorkshire, and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough. Plus Bristol, North Tyneside and Doncaster.

HARTLEPOOL BY-ELECTION: The blockbuster Westminster ballot. Eyebrow-raising polls are tipping the Tories want to wipe out Labour’s 3,595 majority in the Brexit-backing northern seat – which has been red since its creation in 1974 – with as much as a 17-point lead. If Labour candidate, the former MP Dr Paul Williams, fails Boris Johnson will hail it as a coup. Pollsters though point out the vote was split by the Brexit Party in 2019, so the seat might otherwise have fallen to the Tories back then. WHERE? Only the Hartlepool Westminster constituency.

LONDON ASSEMBLY: All 25 seats are up for election and Labour will be straining for an overall majority – the party’s currently one seat short on 12. Polling has suggested Labour is at least 15 points ahead of the Tories but the ‘list’ system introduces unknowns and allows voters to give a leg up to smaller parties. The Greens and ‘ Brexit Alliance’ each have two seats on the Assembly. WHERE? Everywhere in Greater London.

39 POLICE COMMISSIONERS: The oft-forgotten jobs are up for election for the third time since they were created in 2012. When they first emerged 12 were Independents but that shrank to just three in 2016. Labour won 15 of the posts last time while the Tories won 20. But given their role as one single person overseeing police – and the fact many are being declared last – these jobs will end up as a sideshow to the main political news of election weekend. WHERE? Everywhere in England and Wales except Greater London, where the mayor is also the commissioner.

Hour-by-hour guide to results

Boris Johnson on his bike in Stourbridge
Boris Johnson on his bike in Stourbridge

Thursday 6 May: 10pm

Put the kettle on and keep it near for 72 hours.

Polls close across Great Britain and counting starts for the Hartlepool by-election, Doncaster mayor and 19 of 143 English councils.

Unlike in normal years, most results will only start being counted on Friday morning – and in some cases much later.

This is because there are more elections than usual (due to Covid delaying 2020 races) and counting is much slower (also due to Covid).

Friday 7 May: 2am

Results start trickling in from the 19 overnight councils in England.

They include Derby which has swung from Labour to Tory-run no overall control (NOC) in recent years.

And Southend has been run by a Labour, Lib Dem and Green ‘rainbow coalition’ since the Tory leader was voted out in 2019.

Likewise the Tories only need a few gains to take back Colchester from a Labour-Lib Dem coalition.

Harlow is solidly Labour-controlled but has backed Conservatives in the past – could it slip into NOC on a good night for Tories?

Labour meanwhile will be eyeing Thurrock , run by Tories but which has swung back and forth into NOC over the years.

And the Tories seized Redditch from Labour in 2018, so on a good night Keir Starmer’s party would want to make in-roads there.

Labour strongholds Stevenage , Gateshead , Newcastle, Knowsley, Sunderland, Oldham, South Tyneside and Rochdale all declare early.

Friday 7 May: 5am

The Hartlepool by-election result is due around 5am. If the Tories overturn Labour’s 3,595 majority and claim the Westminster seat for the first time in its history, it will likely lead the day’s news and be a big political headache for Keir Starmer.

We should get our first mayor result in the Doncaster mayoral election, currently held by Labour.

And we could get some of the most interesting of the overnight council results, including Dudley where Labour and the Tories are almost neck-and-neck.

Also declaring at sunrise are Stockport , a Labour-Lib Dem split in NOC, and Nuneaton & Bedworth which could go red, blue or NOC.

On a good night the Tories will want to seize control of Northumberland where they rule in a minority.

Friday 7 May: 9am

If you’ve stayed up overnight, go to bed. No more results are likely during the morning.

But from 9am, counting begins for an avalanche of races – all 60 seats for the Welsh Parliament, half the London Assembly, 46 of the 73 constituencies for the Scottish Parliament, and 79 councils in England.

Counting also starts for three of the 39 elections for police and crime commissioners, and the Liverpool mayor.

Friday 7 May: Noon

Lunchtime council results start rolling in, including Burnley where Labour only needs one more seat to take control.

Tories only need small gains to take control of Bolton but it won’t be an easy fight.

Red fortress Manchester declares in the early afternoon as do less strongly Labour-held Rossendale and Tory Devon .

Castle Point is a straight fight between Tories and the powerful Canvey Island independents who want their own council.

Meanwhile we’ll get the mayor of Liverpool, a Labour stronghold but home to a furious row over the party’s selection of their candidate.

Many of the most important Scottish Parliament results will roll in at some point on Friday afternoon.

They include Dumbarton where Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie clung on by whisker against the SNP in 2016.

Labour are likewise fighting hard to defend Edinburgh Southern and East Lothian against an SNP challenge.

Despite speculation of a three-way fight, they believe either the SNP or Tories will take Edinburgh Central .

Eastwood was a three-way fight in 2016, won by the Scottish Tories.

The big name race is in Glasgow Southside where new leader Anas Sarwar is challenging First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. He’ll lose, but get in on the regional list system instead and Labour are hoping to dent the SNP majority.

And Airdrie and Shotts should be interesting – as there’s a Westminster by-election the following week. It’s Tory-held but Labour came close in 2017.

Friday 7 May: 3pm

We’re due the first results from Wales, including the Parliament’s most marginal seat Llanelli where Plaid Cymru are challenging Labour.

Welsh Labour will also be fighting off the Tories in Wrexham , a key brick in a so-called red wall.

Elsewhere, we’ll start getting the first seven results for the London Assembly and the first police commissioners in Avon and Somerset and Staffordshire.

And an avalanche of English council results begins as the afternoon wears on.

Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire turned blue recently and a strong Labour performance should at least kick them into NOC. Ex-minister Edwina Currie – yes her! – is standing against Labour ex-MP Ruth George to become a Derbyshire councillor.

Seizing back Trafford from the Tories was Labour’s big victory in 2019 so the party must hold on now to avoid a reverse humiliation.

Cornwall is run by a Lib Dem-Independent coalition but the Tories have the most seats and will be hoping to gain.

Ex-UKIP territory Basildon will be a hard Labour-Tory fight but could stay in NOC.

On a bad night for Labour the party could lose Bury , Sheffield or West Lancashire to NOC, while Tories could gain Maidstone in a tussle with Lib Dems. Tories have no seats in Sheffield or Sandwell – will they up their count to one?

Nicola Sturgeon visiting a fish processing plant
Nicola Sturgeon visiting a fish processing plant

Friday 7 May: 5pm

The Tees Valley metro mayor result is due, with Tory Ben Houchen tipped to hang on against his Labour challenger in the former ‘red wall’.

And in Wales we’ll get the Labour marginals of Caerphilly and Vale of Clwyd where Plaid and Tories respectively are putting up a fight. Lib Dems are also defending their only seat in Brecon and Radnorshire – and will Rhondda stay Plaid in the Valleys?

Over in England, about 40 councils are due to declare in the space of just 90 minutes.

The biggest races include Norfolk , Cambridgeshire , Essex, counties up for all-out election that are Tory-run but could give Labour inroads.

Cambridge also has all its seats up for election in a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems.

On good nights for the main parties, Labour could win Wirral and Crawley or the Tories could win Pendle and Elmbridge from NOC.

Labour’s first county, Durham , should stay red – as should Doncaster but the Tories might look for small in-roads as all its seats are up.

Labour only need to lose a few seats in Plymouth to lose to NOC but the Tories wouldn’t be able to form a majority.

Likewise Tory-run Walsall could fall to NOC on a bad night for Boris Johnson.

Solihull is unusual – it’s Tory-run but with a Green opposition and the Conservatives will lose control if they’re docked one seat.

Friday 7 May: 7pm

More than a dozen final results flood in for the Welsh Parliament, making clear whether Labour will need to form a coalition.

Key declarations include Tory target Vale of Glamorgan and First Minister Mark Drakeford’s seat Cardiff West.

Likewise by the end of the night we’ll have results for 46 of the 129 Scottish Parliament seats, giving some indication of whether Nicola Sturgeon’s won an outright majority.

About a dozen more English council results should come in during the evening including Hull, where Labour want to keep Lib Dems at bay.

Mole Valley has slim Lib Dem control with a Tory and Independent challenge while Worcester could go Tory or Labour.

No results are expected overnight on Friday unless a particular council chooses to push things late into the night.

Saturday 8 May: 9am

Normally elections would be over by Saturday – but counting will resume in earnest this year.

But go out for brunch or something – the results shouldn’t roll in until noon or so.

There will be all remaining constituency seats and all regional seats in Scotland, 35 councils in England, the rest of the London Assembly and at least 11 police commissioners.

Counts will also begin in the mayoral elections for London, Bristol, Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, North Tyneside, Salford, the West of England and the West Midlands.

Saturday 8 May: Noon

The first results from the 35 English councils counting on Saturday, including Lancashire which the Tories took from NOC in 2017.

Aside from this there may be few surprises in England until later in the afternoon. Oxford and North Tyneside are both Labour while Shropshire, Worcester, Broxbourne and Hertfordshire are all Tory . Eastleigh is solidly Lib Dem.

We could get the Liverpool City mayor and the North Tyneside mayor , both likely Labour, and the West of England mayor , which the Tories won by a slim margin in 2017.

In Scotland we should get results in Aberdeenshire West, which the Tories took from the SNP by a slim margin in 2016, and key target seat Perthshire South which the Tories want to take from the SNP this time.

Saturday 8 May: 3pm

The key result for the West Midlands mayor – which Labour ex-minister Liam Byrne wants to seize from Tory incumbent Andy Street. If he can pull it off it’d be a key symbolic victory for Keir Starmer in territory where the Tories gained much ground under Corbyn.

We should get results from mid-afternoon for the rest of the London Assembly constituencies, but the mayor will only be later in the evening.

We should however get confirmation ‘king of the north’ Andy Burnham has been re-elected as Greater Manchester mayor . And results for 11 police and crime commissioners are likely. The results for the Greater Manchester, Salford and West Midlands mayors are also due.

About 20 more English council results should flood in mid to late afternoon including Hartlepool, where the Tories are part of a complex coalition and turnout should be high due to the by-election.

Labour need just three seats to take control of Kirklees but the Tories have previously gained ground in the area.

Meanwhile the Lib Dems would only need a few seats to seize Gosport from the Conservatives.

Milton Keynes is a three-way fight between Labour and the Lib Dems, currently in coalition under NOC, and the Tories.

The Lib Dems and Tories will both be vying to retake NOC Portsmouth while the Lib Dems and Labour will want to regain seats they lost in Tory Wiltshire.

Stroud is interesting – NOC with a rainbow coalition of Labour, Greens and Lib Dems but Tories are the largest party. And Rotherham doesn’t have a single Tory, will it stay that way?

Sadiq Khan fighting fit
Sadiq Khan fighting fit

Saturday 8 May: 6pm

It’s not quite Live at the Apollo but we should get some Saturday night entertainment.

London is due to declare its remaining Assembly seats and the London mayor – where Sadiq Khan is set to romp home against Tory Shaun Bailey with the biggest mandate of any British politician. Watch the vote percentages for signs of a Tory revival – or death – in the capital.

We’ll find out if Nicola Sturgeon will be get the 65-seat majority she craves for independence as the final Scottish Parliament results roll in.

Among those last Holyrood results will be Scotland North East – where Alex Salmond, yes him, is on the list with his new Alba party. Expect him to cause even more trouble for his former protege if he wins a seat.

The Bristol mayor should be a safe win for Labour incumbent Marvin Rees while we’ll get a small handful of English councils.

They include safe Labour Leeds, Warrington and Slough, plus Welwyn Hatfield which the Tories only need small gains to wrestle back from NOC.

Sunday 9 May: 9am

Things start to slow down now, with any possible late declarations from Scotland or London. There are fears the London mayoral result might only be announced on Sunday.

Ten councils in England meanwhile will only start counting on Sunday morning. Because nothing is ever easy.

Votes will also be counted for the West Yorkshire mayor and police and crime commissioners in Dyfed-Powys, Gwent and North Wales.

Sunday 9 May: Noon

A few council results should drip in from lunchtime.

They include St Albans, currently run by the Lib Dems in minority but which has been Tory in the past.

And there’ll be Oxfordshire where the Tories are a handful of seats short of full control.

Sunday 9 May: 4pm

Results for the police and crime commissioners in Dyfed-Powys, Gwent and North Wales are likely later in the afternoon.

We’ll find out who’s the first West Yorkshire mayor. Labour MP Tracy Brabin is the favourite to win against Tory Matt Robinson, who’d be scoring a big coup if he beat her.

If Ms Brabin does win she’ll trigger a hard-fought Westminster by-election in Batley and Spen – where her majority over the Tories, 3,525, is almost exactly that in Hartlepool.

North Hertfordshire is currently a Lib Dem-Labour coalition but the Tories could score an upset and take control.

Bristol has had a colourful history with Labour just short of an overall majority, and the Tories, Greens and Lib Dems each having a chunk of seats.

The last English council results to trickle in should include Basingstoke & Deane,Cherwell , and West Oxfordshire – all run by the Tories.

Sunday 9 May: 8pm

Barring any Covid-related delays, and boy could there be some, you should be able to draw a long, hot bath at this point.

Monday 10 May

No, it’s not over.

Counting will begin in all remaining police commissioner elections, around 10 of them.

And there’s a slim chance there could be some council results that still need counting if there are unforeseen delays.

Tuesday 11 May

If any elections are delayed significantly by recounts or other issues, there is a chance some results might not be declared until Tuesday.



Most Related Links :
newsbinding Governmental News Finance News

Source link

Back to top button